DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL- ECONOMIC TRENDS IN PUERTO RICO

The demographic trends shape the social economic atmosphere in which the budgetary decisions are taken. The population changes in Puerto Rico are influenced, mainly, by three important demographic elements: birth rate, mortality and migration.

POPULATION GROWTH AND MIGRATION

The projected population for Puerto Rico for the year 2002 reflects an increase of 10.5 percent with respect to the year 1990. In the year 2001 it has been foreseen that the population may reach approximately the amount of 3,865,296, reflecting a 9.7 percent growth with respect to the population level in the year 1990. In the 1980-90 decade, the population density reflected an increase of 10.2 percent. In the year 2001 it is foreseen that the population density will be around 1,128 habitants per square mile, which depicts a 9.7 percent growth compared to the year 1990.

According to the statistics of passenger traffic reported by the Puerto Rico Planning Board Economic Analysis Bureau, in the 1994 fiscal year a net positive migratory balance of 26,853 was reflected. This positive data may indicate that the immigration current surpassed the emigration and the balance of the 1993 fiscal year, which was a positive 4,945. These positive balances may have added to the acceleration of the population growth with respect to the 1993 fiscal year. On the other hand, for fiscal year 1995 a net negative migratory balance of (1,326), and negative (19,494) for fiscal year 1996 was reflected. These negative data may indicate emigration. For 1997 fiscal year, the net migratory balance was positive 39,143, which may indicate immigration. For 1999 fiscal year, the net migratory balance preliminary data is positive 22,508 which may indicate immigration.

BIRTH RATE

In the year 1996, 63,259 live births were registered in Puerto Rico at a rate of 17.0 newborns per 1,000 habitants. According to the data purveyed by the Department of Health, we observe that the index, as well as the birth rate, is dropping as time goes by. This could be due to the increase in use of birth control methods as well as the access to such.

BIRTH RATE INDEX IN PUERTO RICO

1950 DECADES UNTIL 1996

Year

Live Births

Rate per 1,000 habitants

1950

85,455

38.5

1960

76,015

32.2

1970

67,438

24.8

1980

73,060

22.8

1990

66,555

18.9

1993

65,242

18.0

1994

64,325

17.4

1995

1996

63,518

63,259

17.0

17.0

Source: The Department of Health, 1999

The age median of the population in the year 1990 was of 28.4; this depicted an increase of 15.4% compared to the age median of 24.6 in the year 1980. It is foreseen that the age median for the year 2000 will be 30.6, for the year 2001 will be 30.9 and for the year 2002 will be 31.2. These projections indicate that the population in Puerto Rico is moving in its age structure to more adult stages. However, it preserves much younger than the national population whose age median was at 32.8 in the year 1990, but older than the Puerto Rican continental residents, whose median was 25.5 in the year 1990.

The population in the less than 15 years of age groups is projected at 941,389 for the year 2000, a 24.5 percent of the total. The 16 to 24 years of age group has been projected that will constitute the 16.7% of the population, or 641,475 in the year 2000.

The population in the less than 15 years of age groups is projected at 945,223 or 24.5 percent of the total for the year 2001. The 16 to 24 years of age group has been projected that will constitute the 16.4% of the population, or 632,024 in the year 2001.

It is expected that the population of 65 years and older may experience a growing trend, in a way that, for the 2000 and 2005 this group may represent the 10.6 and 11.2 percent respectively of the population, however, it will be less than the portion of the population of the same age in the nation.

POPULATION OUTLOOKS BY AGE AND SEX

PUERTO RICO, YEAR 2005

Age

Males

Females

Both Sexes

0-4

164,423

157,727

322,150

5-9

163,717

157,642

321,359

10-14

162,082

155,877

317,959

15-19

147,546

143,415

290,961

20-24

153,928

150,707

304,635

25-29

156,388

157,508

313,896

30-34

145,001

149,053

294,054

35-39

124,454

136,676

261,130

40-44

118,748

136,317

255,065

45-49

112,103

131,965

244,068

50-54

102,299

122,397

224,696

55-59

94,083

114,379

208,462

60-64

77,252

94,213

171,465

65-69

59,855

75,701

135,556

70-74

46,640

61,660

108,300

75 or more

83,856

117,819

201,675

Total

1,912,375

2,063,056

3,975,431

Source: Puerto Rico Planing Board, 1999

The composition within the aging population has changed significantly. It is expected that the number of people between the ages of 65 to 74 increases to a 5.8% and the group of over 75 depict a 4.7% of the population in the year 2000.

For the year 2001,it is expected that the number of people between the ages of 65 to 74 increases to a 5.9% and the group of people over 75 will constitute the 4.8% of the population.

MORTALITY

The registered deaths in 1996 were of 29,871 a decrease of 1.1 percent with respect to the previous year. The gross mortality rate was calculated at 8.0 deaths per each 1,000 habitants.

The number of deaths in 1960 reflected a decrease of a 27.7% in comparison to the year 1950. This decrease could be due to three elements: (1) the advances in medicine for the control of infectious and parasitic diseases, (2) social economic changes as a result of better life conditions in Puerto Rico, making people less vulnerable to diseases, (3) public health preventive measures. However, an increase in the number of deaths as of 1970 until 1993 can be depicted. An increase of 27.6% is depicted in the number of deaths in 1990 compared to 1980 and a 9% in 1993 compared to 1990. These significant increases during the last two decades could be due to deaths related to chronic diseases, the Acquired Inmunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS), and the increase in criminal action. It reflects an increase of 6.2% in 1995 compared to 1994, which could because by the previous reasons.

From 1960 until 1980, the general mortality rate has kept relatively stationary, which could be due to the aging of the population in Puerto Rico, partaken by the health science advances. The increase depicted in the Gross Mortality Rate in the years 1990, 1993 and 1995 compared with the years 1960 to 1980 could be due to the high criminal incidence and deaths related to AIDS and chronic diseases. However, in 1994, we depict that the gross mortality rate has a decrease with little significance compared to 1993.

GENERAL MORTALITY IN PUERTO RICO

1950 DECADES UNTIL 1996

Year

Number of Deaths

Gross Mortality Rate per 1,000 habitants

1950

21,917

9.9

1960

15,841

6.7

1970

18,080

6.7

1980

20,486

6.4

1990

26,148

7.4

1993

28,494

7.9

1994

28,444

7.7

1995

1996

30,196

29,871

8.1

8.0

Source: The Department of Health, 1999

LIFE EXPECTANCY

The life expectancy for the total population in 1994 was 73. For females it was 78, of which, compared to 1990, did not evidence any significant change. However, for males the life expectancy dropped from 70 years of age in 1990 to 69 in 1994.

A possible cause for this drop in the life expectancy of males are the diseases that have increased deaths, among them, the Acquired Inmunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) stands out. The social economic effects of this disease have a great impact in all levels of life. Puerto Rico occupies third place in the United States with the largest rate of AIDS cases with 62.5 cases per 100,000 habitants in 1994.

By December, 1995, Puerto Rico occupied second place with a 70.3 cases per 100,000 habitants rate, reflecting an increase of 7.8 in comparison to the previous year.

DISTRIBUTION OF AIDS CASES BY AGE AND SEX

(from 1983 to 1999)

Age

Females

Males

Both

Under 5 years of age

153

145

298

5-12

48

48

96

13-19

58

89

147

20-29

1,266

3,069

4,335

30-39

2,369

8,447

10,816

40-49

1,083

4,778

5,861

Over 49 years of age

500

2,104

2,604

Total

5,477

18,680

24,157

Source: The Department of Health, 2000

The data provided by the Department of Health about the distribution of cases of AIDS until December 31, 1999 indicate that the male group represent a 77.3%, of the total cases in Puerto Rico, and 22.7% the female group.

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH BY SEX IN PUERTO RICO

DECADES FROM 1950 UNTIL 1994

Years

Males

Females

Both Sexes

1950

59.45

62.43

60.85

1960

67.14

71.88

69.36

1970

68.96

75.18

71.97

1980

69.88

76.87

73.11

1990

69.74

78.50

74.05

1991

69.70

78.50

73.96

1992

69.33

78.80

75.18

1993

69.07

78.09

73.49

1994

68.83

77.87

73.27

Source: The Department of Health, 1999

We can depict that the life expectancy at birth for both sexes has been increasing since the 1950 decade until the year 1990. However, a slight decrease of 0.1% is depicted in 1991 compared to 1990. We can also depict a decrease of 0.3 % in 1994 compared to 1993. The life expectancy at birth figures for males reported here showed a continuous decrease from the 1980 decade through the year 1994, while the data for females showed increase in the years mentioned above excluding the year 1994 and 1993.

If we compare the life expectancy for the total population in 1950 with the one in 1990, we find that it has increased by 21.7%

Income and Poverty Levels

The estimated net income per capita in 1998 was of $7,314; this reflected an increase of a 3.9% compared to 1997. It is expected for the economy to continue its ascending curse reflecting a vigorous growth. The estimated average family income in 1998 was $30,860 at current prices, which portrayed an increase of 5.3 percent over 1996.

PER CAPITA INCOME IN PUERTO RICO

1980 DECADE UNTIL 1998

(current prices)

Years

Net Income

1980

$2,829

1990

$5,108

1991

$5,351

1992

$5,509

1993

$5,884

1994

$6,032

1995

$6,389

1996

$6,780

1997

1998

$7,039

$7,314(estimated)

Source: Puerto Rico Planning Board, 1999

The dependency ratio for Puerto Rico in 1990 was 0.546, while at the national level it was only 0.336. It is projected that for the year 2000 it will decrease to 0.541 in Puerto Rico while at the national level it will decrease to 0.318.

LABOR FORCE AND THE WORK GROUP

The economic development of a jurisdiction depends in great measure from the quantitative and qualitative potential of its work force and the elements that promote a greater participation in it. The civil non-institutional population (16 years of age and over) estimated for the 1997-98 fiscal year approximately reach 2,740,000, which portrays a 1.2 percent increase with respect to the previous year. If we compare the 1970 civil non-institutional work group to the 1998 projected one, we find that it will have increased approximately a 72.7 percent.

CIVIL NON-INSTITUTIONAL POPULATION IN PUERTO RICO

1969-70 TO 1998-99 FISCAL YEARS

(16 years old and over)

Years

Work Group

1970

1,587,000

1980

2,094,000

1990

2,473,000

1994

2,608,000

1995

2,654,000

1996

2,684,000

1997

2,708,000

1998

1999

2,740,000

2,782,000

Source: Puerto Rico Planning Board, and the Department of Labor, 1999

According to noted historical trends it is estimated that the labor force for the 1998 fiscal year reached approximately 1,317,000 and it is expected that it will decrease to 1,310,000 in 1999, or a 0.5 percent reduction. It must be pointed out that the participating rate was reduced from a 46.9 percent in 1993 to a 46.1 percent in 1994. For the 1998 fiscal year, the participation rate was estimated in 48.1, and for 1999 fiscal year it is projected to reach 47.1.

Finally, the demographic changes experienced in Puerto Rico during the last years suggest that it is necessary to reassess the planning of production resources. The current analysis suggests that the interaction of the vital outcomes showed an increase in our population. Therefore, the qualitative and quantitative labor force changes in Puerto Rico will require the reassessment of the employment offer and demand projection.